India’s Expanding Military Presence: A Silent Encirclement of China

India’s Strategic Shift

In recent years, India has moved beyond its traditional doctrine of reactive defense to assert itself as a regional power capable of strategic offense. A notable shift in international perception is evident in the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency's (DIA) latest report, which classifies China as India's "primary adversary" and Pakistan as merely an "ancillary" security concern. This reflects a broader recalibration within Indian defence planning, wherein the focus has shifted to countering China’s influence and military expansion, especially across the Indo-Pacific.

India's modern military posture integrates satellite surveillance, long-range strike capabilities, and overseas logistical reach to construct a formidable deterrence architecture. But more crucially, India is building an external ring of influence that enables it to strike or strangle Chinese interests across multiple geographies.

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I. Technological Foundation: Defensive to Offensive Deterrence

India's space and missile programs have matured into key pillars of its anti-China strategy:

·        EMR Satellites: India is expanding its Electro-Magnetic Reconnaissance satellite fleet, enabling all-weather, high-resolution imaging and signal intelligence over Chinese territory.

·        Over-the-Horizon (OTH) Radars: Capable of detecting threats thousands of kilometres away, OTH radars are vital for early warning systems against Chinese ballistic missiles or stealth aircraft.

·        Air Defense and BMD Systems: The integration of S-400s, indigenous Akash systems, and upcoming Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) networks provide India with a multi-layered shield.

This technology backbone allows India to detect, defend, and—crucially—counterstrike.

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II. The Encirclement Strategy: Indian Military Presence Around China

India is steadily building or partnering in a network of 14 strategic military points that collectively form a quiet but deliberate encirclement of China. These are not mere partnerships but forward bases or logistical anchors from which India can influence regional dynamics.

1. Farkhor (Ayni) Air Base, Tajikistan
India’s only foreign air base, located just 200 km from China's western province of Xinjiang, gives India an unparalleled western flank. From here, India can monitor Chinese military activities in Xinjiang and intervene in Central Asian logistics routes critical for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This also gives India indirect access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.

2. Bhutan
Bhutan borders China’s Chumbi Valley—a dagger-like protrusion near the Siliguri Corridor. IMTRAT's presence helps India maintain real-time military awareness and act as a buffer to prevent Chinese incursions into the Siliguri corridor, Bhutan is a critical zone to check Chinese pressure tactics and salami slicing strategies.

3. Madagascar
Located near the Mozambique Channel, a strategic sea lane through which a significant portion of China’s energy imports pass, India's naval presence in Madagascar helps monitor and potentially disrupt these flows. This presence also gives India leverage in East Africa—a key node of Chinese investments.

4. Nepal
Although Nepal has grown closer to China politically, India’s integration of over 32,000 Nepalese Gorkhas into its armed forces gives it soft power and potential strategic influence. Nepal’s proximity to Tibet and Indian infrastructure access through the Terai region makes it a key link for mountain warfare logistics or covert monitoring of Chinese Himalayan activities.

5. Oman (Duqm Port)
Duqm gives India docking, repair, and refueling access on the Arabian Sea, near the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for Chinese oil supplies. Indian naval presence here means India can monitor maritime routes critical to China’s energy security and extend operational reach towards West Asia.

6. Agalega Island, Mauritius
India is building a 3,000-meter runway and naval facilities here, turning Agalega into a pivot point for monitoring Chinese naval movements in the western Indian Ocean. It enables extended aerial patrols, P-8I aircraft deployments, and rapid response to any Chinese intrusion around Africa.

7. Mauritius
In addition to Agalega, India runs coastal surveillance radar stations and joint patrols in Mauritius. These installations form a net of maritime domain awareness in the Indian Ocean, particularly to detect and deter any Chinese military or commercial incursions near key sea lanes.

8. Mongolia
Bordering both Russia and China, Mongolia's partnership with India is more symbolic but strategically irritating for China. It offers India a psychological lever and diplomatic tool to show China it can reach even its northern backyard—mirroring China’s own activities in South Asia.

 

9. Maldives
Despite political oscillations, India remains embedded in the Maldives’ defense framework. With India’s coastal radars and aerial reach from INS Kadmatt, this position enables India to secure the central Indian Ocean and block Chinese attempts to gain a foothold through “debt-trap diplomacy.”

10. Assumption Island, Seychelles
This island is being developed as a joint base, situated close to key maritime routes between Asia and East Africa. In a conflict, it could be used to track Chinese submarines or block PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) reinforcements via the western Indian Ocean.

11. Chabahar Port, Iran
While primarily an economic gateway to Central Asia, Chabahar counters China’s Gwadar Port, only 170 km away. It denies China exclusive access to the Arabian Sea and serves as a logistical hub that India can use for rapid deployment and regional engagement in the Gulf and Central Asia.

12. Mozambique
India conducts naval exercises and port visits here, monitoring sea lanes crucial for Chinese energy imports. Mozambique’s location along the east coast of Africa enables India to project naval power and interdict China’s resource lifeline from this region.

13. Singapore (Changi Naval Base)
With berthing rights at Changi, India can project naval power deep into the South China Sea, a hotspot of Chinese maritime aggression. It allows India to jointly monitor and act with ASEAN and Quad navies to constrain China’s freedom of movement.

14. Philippines
India’s BrahMos missile deal and expanding naval cooperation turn the Philippines into a forward node for India’s deterrence arc. Positioned against China's expansionist tactics in the South China Sea, this partnership also signals New Delhi’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security architecture.

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Strategic Goals: Containment and Chokehold

China’s economy runs on its global supply chains, especially oil imports through the Indian Ocean and export goods through the Malacca Strait. India’s external military posture is designed to:

·        Monitor and Disrupt Maritime Trade Routes: Indian bases across the Indo-Pacific enable naval dominance during war, potentially cutting off vital Chinese oil imports.

·        Project Power Beyond Borders: India can now launch joint naval-air operations from as far west as Duqm to as far east as the South China Sea.

·        Pre-position and Rapid Deploy: By leveraging these bases, India reduces response time, enhances sustainability of missions, and sustains operational tempo during a conflict.

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The Global Context: A Two-Front Doctrine Fading

India's historic "Two-Front War Doctrine" is slowly giving way to a China-centric posture. Pakistan, while still a security concern, is increasingly treated as a subsidiary front. The Indo-Pacific Quad (India, USA, Japan, Australia) and India’s expanding ties with ASEAN, Iran, and African nations reflect this reorientation.

The strategy is clear: India is positioning itself not just to defend the subcontinent but to lead the Indo-Pacific order.

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Rewriting the Balance of Power

India is no longer a passive continental power reacting to provocations on the Line of Actual Control. Through strategic diplomacy, military modernization, and overseas basing, India is quietly constructing a web of power projection across Asia and the Indian Ocean. In doing so, it is effectively surrounding China with forward positions that can disrupt its ambitions in any conflict scenario.

This new Indian doctrine of outward expansion and multi-vector deterrence may be the most significant strategic development in Asia since China’s rise. And Beijing is watching—closely.

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