Israel-Iran War: Silent Stakeholders (US, India, China and Pakistan)

A Spark in the Powder Keg

In a world increasingly defined by fragile alliances and shifting global power equations, the latest escalation between Israel and Iran has taken center stage.

 What began as a covert campaign of sabotage and cyberwarfare has erupted into a full-blown kinetic war. Israel, claiming an existential threat, launched preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, utilizing smuggled drones and air assets deep within Iranian territory. In retaliation, Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, lighting up the skies over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and rattling the region.

But this war—while geographically between two Middle Eastern powers—is diplomatically, militarily, and economically far more global. Behind the explosive headlines are silent players like the United States, Pakistan, China, and India, each with their unique stakes, compulsions, and contradictions.

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Israel vs. Iran: The Open Battlefield, The Hidden War

The current escalation is not just about nuclear enrichment or military superiority; it is about regime survival and regional dominance. Israel has long maintained that a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat. Its latest assault aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear command and eliminate key scientists and IRGC generals. Iran’s missile retaliation, although formidable, is likely the beginning of a protracted conflict.

Yet, what the world sees on the surface—missiles, media outrage, and press briefings—doesn’t tell the whole story. The optics may be murky, but the diplomatic alignments are becoming increasingly clear.

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Pakistan: Caught Between Ideology and Dependency

Pakistan shares a border with Iran and projects itself as a champion of the Muslim Ummah, yet its actions betray a deep dependency on U.S. military and economic aid. On the surface, Islamabad issued statements supporting Iran’s "right to self-defence" and called for "Muslim unity." However, Pakistani surveillance aircraft were reportedly seen near the Iran border, with intelligence likely shared with the United States.

Historically, Pakistan has viewed Israel as an adversary second only to India. However, in this unfolding war, its need for American dollars, diplomatic support, and F-16 maintenance packages far outweighs ideological posturing. This was starkly evident when the U.S. denied Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir’s invitation to a major military event, despite Islamabad’s usual eagerness to project closeness with Washington.

Let’s not forget: the Biden administration approved a $450 million support package for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet in 2022, followed by another $397 million under Trump in 2025. It’s a paradox: counterterrorism jets with no real terror targets. Clearly, the F-16 program is more about geopolitical utility than Pakistan’s defense. In return, Pakistan will likely allow the U.S. to use its airspace or bases if the war escalates.

Pakistan may shout "Muslim unity" publicly, but it dances to the tune of American strategy privately.

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China: Condemning the Flames but Not Pouring Water

Beijing has deep economic ties with Iran, having invested heavily in oil and infrastructure under the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In response to the Israeli strikes, China issued sharp condemnations, citing violations of Iranian sovereignty and international law. It urged the United Nations Security Council to intervene and halt the "blatant aggression."

But beyond these diplomatic rebukes, China’s stance remains symbolic. As the war continues, China is likely to remain a silent spectator, unwilling to jeopardize its trade with the West or its delicate balancing act in global politics. Supporting Iran beyond words would jeopardize its economic corridor projects, global image, and regional diplomacy.

China wants to be seen as a global peacemaker, but not at the cost of risking its commerce and strategic ambiguity.

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India: Balancing Trade, Ties, and Transformation

India’s position is perhaps the most complex yet evolving. While India once enjoyed strong economic ties with Iran—being its second-largest trading partner in 2015—the volume dropped significantly by 2023 due to U.S. sanctions and pressure. On the other hand, Israel remains one of India’s strongest defense and intelligence allies.

In 2025, during the India-Pakistan conflict, it was Israel that stood openly with India, supplying technology and diplomatic support. This has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi’s corridors of power.

India’s historical non-alignment policy, though once a symbol of strategic independence, has increasingly proved counterproductive in the face of clear security threats. A multi-alignment strategy—balancing relations with the U.S., Israel, Iran, and Russia—may work in trade, but war is a different ballgame.

Wars test friendships. Trade tests diplomacy. National security tests resolve.

If India continues to stay neutral in such global flashpoints, it risks being isolated when its own security interests are challenged. A pragmatic foreign policy must acknowledge this: support should be reciprocal. In a multipolar world, strategic silence can be strategic weakness.

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The Role of the United States: Puppeteer Behind the Curtain

While publicly calling for restraint, the United States is deeply entrenched in this war. Washington has always viewed Iran as a destabilizing force. Under both Trump and Biden, the U.S. has continued to fund Israeli defense and pressurize Iran economically through crippling sanctions.

Although Donald Trump is posturing as a peacemaker, any serious Iranian advance in nuclear capabilities will likely trigger U.S. intervention. The narrative of "Iran about to launch nukes" could become the pretext for direct American military action, much like Iraq's WMD story. That time Pakistan will be on the plate to be used for the time its being pampered. Peace posturing often precedes precision strikes—history reminds us.

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The New Cold Front of the Middle East

This Israel-Iran war is not a regional conflict—it's the centrepiece of a new geopolitical chessboard. And every player—India, Pakistan, China, and the U.S.—has chosen a square, whether publicly or covertly.

• Israel is fighting to eliminate a perceived existential threat.
• Iran is fighting for regime survival and regional pride.
• Pakistan is juggling hypocrisy and dependency.
• China is issuing press statements while quietly preserving trade.
• India is learning the cost of neutrality and the value of loyal allies.
• The U.S. is orchestrating the tempo with money, weapons, and diplomacy.

As missiles fly, diplomacies crumble and alliances harden, the world is watching. The war may be regional, but its ripples will shape global politics for decades to come.