The Return of the RIC Triangle: Can Russia-India-China Rewrite Global Geopolitics?

In an era of shifting global power dynamics, emerging economies are no longer content with merely reacting to the West; they are now actively rewriting the rules. At the heart of this tectonic shift is a long-dormant but never-forgotten idea: the Russia-India-China (RIC) strategic triangle. And now, with the world more divided than ever, this idea may be returning to centre stage.

On May 29, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made headlines while addressing a Eurasian security forum in Perm, Russia. His words were not just diplomatic formalities but a quiet call for a new world order:

“I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika- Russia, India, China- which was established many years ago on the initiative of (ex-Russian prime minister) Yevgeny Primakov...”

With those words, Lavrov rekindled a vision that could redefine global alliances- but is this triangular dream realistic, or just another geopolitical mirage?

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🔺 The RIC Troika: An Idea Born in New Delhi

The RIC triangle is not a new concept. Its origins date back to 1998, when then-Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov visited India and proposed the idea of a trilateral strategic dialogue. He envisioned a multipolar world where Russia, India, and China- three great civilizations and rising powers- would form a coalition to balance the unipolar hegemony of the United States.

The idea took root. Since 2000, it has been discussed more than 20 times at ministerial levels, not only among foreign ministers but also by trade, finance, and defense leaders. Interestingly, every time Russia organizes bilateral or trilateral summits with India and China, the RIC idea resurfaces, often just before major events.

In 2000, on the eve of Putin’s visit to India, the RIC concept was discussed, just after he hosted Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Moscow.

In 2002, Putin again traveled from Beijing to Delhi, with RIC on the discussion table.

Now in 2025, Lavrov brings it up again, just weeks after President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow on May 8, and just ahead of Putin’s upcoming visit to India.

Clearly, Russia has always been the central force behind the RIC vision.

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🌍 Why RIC Matters Now More Than Ever

The 21st century is witnessing the slow erosion of Western dominance. Institutions like NATO, the EU, and even the G7 are increasingly struggling to keep pace with global realities. In contrast, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) has emerged as a challenger, but internal tensions, especially between India and China, have prevented it from becoming truly unified.

Here’s where RIC could step in, smaller, sharper, more strategic. Three massive economies. Three nuclear powers. Three civilizations represent 40% of the world’s population and over 25% of global GDP.

If they manage to collaborate, even partially, the consequences would transform global diplomacy, economics, and defense.

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🚧 The Challenges: Why the West Thinks RIC Will Fail

Of course, Western analysts are not wrong. The RIC dream, they argue, is riddled with fault lines:

1. India-China Border Disputes

Since the 1962 war, India and China have had unresolved border tensions, most recently erupting in 2020 in Galwan. The 2025 Operation Sindoor, launched by India against Pakistani-sponsored terrorism, exposed China's behind-the-scenes support for Islamabad. Trust remains fragile.

2. Trade Rivalry

India and China are not just neighbors; they are competitors in global trade. While both are manufacturing powerhouses, they often vie for similar export markets, technological dominance, and regional influence.

3. Trade Imbalance

India runs a massive trade deficit with China, over $100 billion annually. This economic asymmetry adds fuel to political suspicion.

4. China’s Support to Pakistan and Bangladesh

China’s strategic relationship with Pakistan, including military and nuclear cooperation, is a red flag for India. Additionally, China has been investing heavily in Bangladesh, which India sees as part of its strategic backyard.

From this Western perspective, the RIC idea looks more like a geopolitical fantasy than a diplomatic possibility.

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🔓 Why RIC Could Still Succeed: The Silent Interests of the Giants

But geopolitics is rarely black and white. Beneath the surface, deep interests and strategic calculations are pushing the RIC triangle closer to reality.

1. China’s Taiwan Anxiety

For China, Taiwan is existential. It knows India’s voice matters on the global stage. China may be willing to soften tensions with India if New Delhi maintains a neutral or supportive stance on the Taiwan issue.

2. Deprioritizing Border Disputes

While the border issue with India is sensitive, for Beijing, it pales in comparison to Taiwan. If India doesn’t poke China on Taiwan, China may reciprocate by easing tensions on the LAC (Line of Actual Control).

3. QUAD Disruption

The QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia is seen by China as a containment strategy. A strong RIC bloc could dilute India’s commitment to QUAD, weakening its strategic bite.

4. Russia’s Financial Motivation

Facing Western sanctions, Russia wants to bypass the dollar in global trade. By promoting the BRICS common currency and direct trade with India and China, Russia gains financial sovereignty.

5. India’s Economic Interests

India sees a stable neighborhood as key to its growth. Resolving disputes with China would free up resources, improve trade, and help balance its deficit.

6. Mutual Economic Efficiency

What if India and China stop competing in global markets and instead complement each other’s supply chains? China could focus on electronics and raw materials; India could lead in services, pharmaceuticals, and software.

Such an arrangement would boost profits, reduce global shipping dependencies, and reduce friction.

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🧨 Why the U.S. Will Try to Break the Troika

A united RIC would spell the end of U.S. unipolar dominance. Washington knows it. That’s why we can expect:

Increased U.S.-India military and tech offers to shift India away from China.

Sanction relief for Russia, offering Putin an off-ramp from BRICS if he agrees to isolate China.

Deeper trade deals with India, to tempt it away from economic coordination with China.

Ironically, in both these scenarios — either India aligning with the U.S. or Russia receiving economic lifelines — India and Russia come out stronger. It’s a rare win-win.

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🔍 The Trust Problem: Can Three Rivals Become Partners?

Despite these benefits, the core challenge remains trust.

India and China have fought wars and skirmishes.

China continues to support Pakistan militarily.

All three nations have border disputes — even Russia and China had standoffs until the early 2000s.

This triangle is not built on friendship; it is built on realpolitik.

What will determine its success? Not ideology. Not history. But whether they can trust each other to act in mutual self-interest.

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🔮 A Fragile Yet Formidable Future

The RIC triangle isn’t just about trade or territory. It’s about who writes the rules of the 21st century. It’s about whether three ancient civilizations, burdened by the past but fueled by ambition, can find common cause in a world where the West no longer holds all the cards.

If the RIC troika succeeds, the world will tilt East — economically, diplomatically, and technologically.

And if it fails? It may still serve a purpose: exposing the limits of Western pressure, and giving India, Russia, and China a chance to rethink their futures, individually and collectively.

In geopolitics, there are no permanent enemies- only permanent interests. And right now, those interests may just be aligning.

By Pradeep Mahaur – Pradeep Mahaur Magazine

Insights on Hindu Wisdom and Global Affairs from an Indic perspective.

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